Five metrics that predict a late project weeks in advance

Late projects rarely surprise the people doing the work. The signals are there weeks before the deadline; they just aren't visible to everyone. We looked at delivery data from more than 4,000 teams using Lumetric and found five metrics that reliably warn of a slip.

1. Scope growth after kickoff

Projects that grow by more than 20% after kickoff miss their original date 71% of the time. The fix isn't to ban new work, it's to make every addition visible and trade something out.

2. Review wait time

When pull requests wait more than two days for a first review, cycle time roughly doubles. It is the single cheapest problem to fix.

The best predictor of a late project is work that is waiting, not work that is hard.

3. Work in progress per person

Teams where each engineer juggles more than two active tickets finish less, not more. Limit work in progress and throughput rises.

4. Throughput variance

A team that finishes 10 tickets one week and 2 the next is hard to forecast. Smaller, more even tickets make dates more reliable.

5. Unplanned work share

If more than a third of each sprint is bugs and interruptions, your roadmap is fiction. Measure it, then budget for it.